Why We Are Moving Away from Promoting Trillions & Billions for Sale
In June of 2021 I was talking to a buyer about the strength of my seller to provide 100 million boxes of Cranberry Evolve gloves. I had to overplay my confidence in my seller to convince the buyer to give me the required paperwork (LOI/LOA/ICPO/AML/KYC/ATV/BCL). After the buyer sent the legal docs, he challenged me with a series of hard questions which are reflected below. Every few weeks after that I was contacted by this same buyer who kept trying to convince me that there were no warehouses with 100s of millions of boxes. This buyer, who is now one of my sellers, has convinced me of the facts below. This is an attempt to convince you that gloves come in the hundreds of thousands and the millions, not the tens of millions or billions.
Sincerely, Tony Locke
The Financial Problem
A regular 3M 1860 mask costs between $1.50-$2.60 (depending on the quantity, country etc., but let us stick to this price). If I claim to have 1 billion pieces stashed in a warehouse, that means that I have locked-up capital of roughly two billion dollars waiting on a WhatsAPP broker to sell it for me. Billionaires do not operate like that. They are surrounded by brilliant managers.
Warehouses require storage costs, security costs and massive logistics for large lots.
On the other hand (buyer side), it is also impractical to buy such a huge quantity at once. It blows a hole in the cash flow of the company, it is an enormous logistical challenge to transport the products. But let us see an easier explanation: most companies simply do not have the financial background to buy and sell so many products. We are talking about billions of dollars here, and even if a company is worth several billion, they will not invest 20-30-50% of their entire revenue into one single deal. No one does that because it is too dangerous.
The Problem of Proof
How many times have we tried to vet our seller and we received only the persuasive promises of other brokers. There should be hard evidence of billions of gloves in a warehouse if they really existed. Local communities would be able to verify the moment in history when hundreds of thousands of trucks delivered the gloves over a few years. Pictures and news articles would exist. Local municipalities would promote the tax base of billions of products stored in their community. It would be a matter of pride. You would be able to see it in the statistics of the ports where they get shipped or unloaded. You could see it in the statistics of customs. But no, there are no reports of these massive sized stocks anywhere. You can find millions, but not billions and above.
The Material Problem
3M 1860 is made of meIt-woven fabric and nitrile gloves are made from acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber. The world has enough of these products for daily consumption, but not for global stock piles in the billions. There is simply not enough material at hand to produce trillions of masks and gloves.
The Logistics Problem
Calculate a glove box size/volume multiplied by 1 billion, 10 billion, 1 trillion, etc. Where do you find storage places for all that? How many containers do you need to move from one place to the other? How many container ships do you need for this challenge? If you need others to do the math for you, then you are not professional enough to be involved at this level of global business. Is that harsh?
I have plenty of sellers who claim that there are huge storage facilities in Asia and the US, but seriously, do you think you just put all your products into them, and that’s it? You need to secure them, you need to pay for staff to handle them, you have spoilage/shrinkage, you need to find containers to move them . . . try finding 1000 containers a day or ten thousand! These storage and logistical tasks are impossible in these quantities. Period.
Also, refer to the points above: all these costs would drive up the end price of the gloves and masks so insanely, that there would be no suitable buyer for them in the end. How can there be product in the billions if it would take a majority of the national logistics and storage capacity in planes, trains and trucks? Did they stop bringing in home improvement supplies? Did they stop bringing in Christmas supplies just to make room for PPE products within the supply chain?
The Political Problem
Global governments around the world used desperate measures to seize stocks of PPE already on the ground. If there was a stock of one billion gloves waiting for a WhatsAPP broker to sell, the local government would have seized it in an instant. Owners in western countries get reimbursed after filing a complaint, but large quantities of OTG gloves/masks would not be available for the broker universe to sell.
The Time Problem
The pandemic started in January 2020. The world’s leading manufacturers ramped up their production capacities as much as they could, but there is simply not enough time for stocks in the billions to accumulate. And truth be told, most manufacturers in Asia shut down their factories from a labor shortage during covids first outbreak.
Global Money Considerations
500 billion boxes of Cranberry evolve cost roughly 8,500,000,000,000 (8.5 trillion) USD. That is more than 40% of the entire GDP of the United States. I have paperwork on my computer for Quads and hundreds of Trillions. These kinds of numbers would make 3M richer than the entire world times three. Not to mention, if such a deal could be closed, and an intermediary received lets say 1% from it, he could buy Amazon, Google, or the country of Germany. Ridiculous.
Money Facts to Consider:
- Top Glove is the largest manufacturer of gloves in the world. Since having to close 27 (or was it 28 factories) due to covid they barely produced 700 million boxes of gloves in 2020. They did over 800 million boxes in 2019. They might be able to hit the 1 billion boxes landmark in 2021, but most of these gloves are presold before leaving the warehouse, which means they will never pile up in warehouses.
- Cranberry only produced 400 million boxes of gloves in 2020. They have been adding lines and they are looking to produce up to 500 million boxes for 2021. Cranberry themselves do not ship gloves until they are ordered. You will never see more than one million Cranberry gloves OTG.
- Cranberry on their site can give you a list of distributors that are authorized to actually sell Cranberry gloves. The future of their procedures will be to add the distributor's name on the side of the box to track and minimize fraud. I have a distributor who is allocated 6 million in 2022. Their name is on the box and they confirm there are not tens of millions of gloves sitting around anywhere.
- 3M will never have more than a few million masks at a time OTG to sell. When you see people with hundreds or hundreds of millions of masks OTG, it’s a scam.
- People will try to justify lots in the billions or more saying that these are paper contracts or futures contracts (like commodity trading). Cranberry Global specifically disputes this explanation as fraud.
Market Usage Capacity
As you can see, in the most optimistic scenario, 1B boxes of Cranberry, in the entire country of USA, can be used for two whole years. The same goes for the state of California. 50M boxes of Cranberry will last 21 months in the entire California. Now, think about people who are closing OTG 1 billion boxes of Cranberry deals every other week. 5 minutes silence for those poor souls.
So, let that sink in for a moment before you start making arguments to convince yourself about the existence of such stocks. I know, it is hard to let go of the dream of hitting the jackpot and making billions overnight, but if you think about the situation in a logical way, you need to admit, there is no point pursuing non-existing products.
Let me ask you: have you ever seen hard evidence for a stock above 50 million anywhere? And by hard proof, I mean a real SGS report, a Bill of Lading, maybe a video of a soccer stadium fully stocked with gloves or masks – not just some claims by a guy you know over the internet for a couple of weeks. I would bet you have never seen such a thing. Because they do not exist. I have personally reviewed dozens of these claims, maybe even a hundred, and I have never ever seen any proof of such a product. So, have some common sense and steer clear of joker-brokers who claim to have such quantities of stock.
Sources and References:
1. Some PPE myths debunked + some useful guides : WeNeedPPE
2. About Cranberry and other products : PPE
3. VISUALIZATION OF 3M 1860 MASK OTG IN COMPARISON TO MONEY – Global Resource Broker
4. American Health Association, National library of Medicine, Wikipedia.